Ghana seems to be gradually recovering from a crisis triggered by rapid fiscal deterioration, the commodity price collapse and disappointing oil production. Within the framework of the IMF support programme (since April 2015) several important reforms have been introduced and financial support packages were provided. Consequently, investor confidence is steadily recovering and liquidity levels have improved – reserves reach more than USD 4 billion again. 2016 and 2017 growth projections have become somewhat more favourable and inflation is expected to reduce as monetary tightening helped stabilise the cedi. Consequently, Credendo Group decided to upgrade Ghana’s short-term political risk classification from category 6 to 5. Even though the worst may be over, with elections due in December 2016 it remains to be seen whether fiscal discipline will be maintained. If not, the IMF could withhold support funds and the programme might go off-track, which would incite capital outflows and liquidity pressure again.
22 Mar 2018
Ghana: Öffentliche Haushaltslage bleibt trotz Erholung des BIP-Wachstums angespannt
Wiederholte politische Fehlentwicklungen in Wahljahren bilden eine gravierende institutionelle Schwäche