Regional insecurity has been deteriorating over the past year and Boko Haram’s presence in Cameroon’s Far North and North regions is growing. Moreover, kidnapping incidents by a faction of the Central African Republic (CAR) Seleka insurgent group (FDPC) are occurring more frequently. Consequently, the risk for attacks, looting and hijacking of cargo and convoys travelling in the northern region of Cameroon has severely augmented. Moreover, in response to these violent incursions, local vigilante groups are likely to be formed.

Impact on country risk

The spill-over of Boko Haram’s insurgency and CAR’s Seleka activity into northern Cameroon could undermine tourism and trade revenues, whilst the fiscal position is already weakened by huge public investment project costs, expensive fuel subsidies and lower-than-projected oil revenues. What’s more, Boko Haram’s violent campaign in Nigeria and fighting in the neighbouring CAR have been driving up refugee numbers inside Cameroon, putting pressure on food prices and other goods. The foremost risk for political destabilisation on the other hand, still stems from the undecided succession of the 81-year-old President Biya owing to the fierce competition inside the ruling party across ethnic, regional and generational lines.

Analyst: Louise Van Cauwenbergh, l.vancauwenbergh@credendogroup.com