Thailand’s external liquidity is further strengthening this year through increasing foreign exchange reserves on the back of slightly improved economic performances and a widened current account surplus. In recent years, the main political risk has lain in recurrent political instability and deep society divisions. The long-awaited and feared death of Thailand’s long-reigning monarch last October will not prevent future political tensions but might at least bring political stability in the next 12 months. The latter should indeed be maintained during the official year of mourning thanks to broad respect for a venerated king but also as a result of strict lèse-majesté laws. The military junta is expected to ensure a smooth royal succession and preserve stability under the newly approved military-drafted Constitution after a peaceful referendum last summer. Hence, Credendo Group has decided to upgrade Thailand’s short-term political risk from 4/7 to 3/7.
15 May 2019
Thailand: The preservation of the military’s power despite electoral defeat will not guarantee political stability
Event On 24 March, Thailand held its – frequently delayed – first elections since the 2014 military coup. With no surprise, the army will keep ...